Dispatches from the front-line battle against climate change“Let’s be clear: We are on emergency mode, and time is our enemy.”
In 2022 we asked the question ‘are we doing enough?’ Are we, as an industry, doing what’s required to address the urgent climate crisis. At the time, Ian Jopson, NATS’ Sustainability Director told us no, that there was much more that needed to be done and that this “must be a decade of action on climate change.”
Now three years later, with almost a third of that decade already gone, we’re revisiting that question, not just with Ian but with sustainability leaders from across the industry. Where has progress been made, what successes can the industry point to and what still needs to be done? What they have to say should be a rallying call for anyone who loves this industry and wants to see it thrive in the years and decades to come.
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Duncan McCourt, Chief Executive Sustainable Aviation
What progress has the industry made on sustainability in the last year or so?
The industry is making progress across the board. More efficient aircraft, more efficient routes, technical progress on hydrogen-powered flight. And of course, the Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) mandate which came into effect on 1st January.
The mandate is a key tool to help commercialise and scale-up the use of SAF, which will play a major role in getting to our net zero target. It’s great to see the momentum building on UK airspace modernisation, which can deliver carbon savings quickly and at relatively low cost.
Are we doing enough as an industry?
We are making good progress to net zero, but there is still a long way to go. Collectively, the aviation industry is doing a huge amount, investing billions of pounds in new aircraft, making offtake agreements for sustainable aviation fuels, supporting efforts to strengthen the CORSIA offsetting scheme to align it with a global net zero ambition.
Our commitment to the UK SAF mandate – the most ambitious in the world to 2030 – shows industry’s commitment. We need to maintain this momentum, and work in lockstep with government as a key partner.
Our commitment to the UK SAF mandate – the most ambitious in the world to 2030 – shows industry’s commitment.
What is giving you cause for optimism?
The commitment of the industry – from investors, through the C-suite, and throughout organisations – to reach net zero, allied to the fact that we know how to do it, gives me confidence that our industry can, and will reach net zero carbon by 2050.
We have much of the technology available already, the challenge now is to scale it up. And we are seeing real-world progress – aircraft are more fuel efficient, SAF mandates are coming into effect, the UK government is committed to legislate for a revenue certainty mechanism to help kickstart UK SAF production, and airspace modernisation is progressing.
Industry has not baulked at the challenge, and here in the UK we’ve benefitted from governments that have shared our vision to innovate our way to net zero whilst keeping the significant social and economic benefits of flying for all.
We have much of the technology available already, the challenge now is to scale it up. And we are seeing real-world progress.
What are the biggest challenges we still need to overcome?
The big challenge now is to scale up the fuels and technologies that we need to decarbonise. A clear part of that is the pace that we need to move at, while keeping the industry competitive and the costs of the transition as low as possible for consumers.
That is a big challenge, and a big opportunity. The UK has huge strengths a global aviation hub – we can develop the technologies not just to decarbonise UK aviation, but to decarbonise global aviation.
Ian Jopson, Sustainability Director, NATS
What progress has the industry made on sustainability in the last year or so?
I think there’s been an ever-increasing focus on the climate impacts of aviation in the last twelve months, quite rightly so. As societies around the world are decarbonising, it is putting the spotlight on ‘hard-to-abate’ sectors like cement, chemicals, and aviation.
And specifically for aviation, there has been a much-increased scrutiny in the area of non-CO2 climate warming impacts and their contribution to the solution to a warming planet. Here particularly relating to contrails, there remains some scientific uncertainties, but we’re making strides in reducing those.
Progress has also been made in areas like mandating the use of more sustainable fuels, improving the policy environment to support sustainable flying and on improving the efficiency of airspace to reduce emissions.
Are we doing enough as an industry?
It is a good question, looking at it through the lens of the science I think is helpful here. It is widely known that if we are to achieve the limiting of global mean surface temperature to 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the 2020s are the decade where real meaningful material progress needs to be made.
At the recent global climate meeting, COP29, in Baku, scientists told us that at the current rate of emissions we are on target not for 1.5 degrees, but 2.7 degrees. So no, I don’t think we’re doing enough as global societies, and aviation is a global business included in that.
Image Credit: Number 10
If I look at contrails, the climate warming impacts were being discussed at the United Nations level as far back as 1999’s special report on aviation. More than a quarter of a century later, we’re not scaling action due to some uncertainties about unintended consequences. On both CO2 and contrails there’s more to do and we need scale, agility and pace.
What is giving you cause for optimism?
I’d say as an aviation industry we’ve got a promising track record in delivering sustainability solutions. While the real game-changers for the industry in terms of meeting the Government’s decarbonisation targets are Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF) and the next generation of aircraft airframes and engines, these are still some years away at commercial scale.
Meanwhile the airspace modernisation programme is already delivering benefits – a visible demonstration of the industry’s commitment to decarbonise and improve efficiency. In airspace over the last two decades, NATS has cumulatively enabled the reduction of 17 million tonnes of CO2.
Only a few years ago sustainable aviation fuels were a reality in labs only, we’re now seeing some scale-up in their production. We’ve also been supporting academia on contrail research for more than a decade and I’m confident we’re making progress.
We’re now working on CICONIA, a European contrails project led by Airbus, and involving Air France, Swiss and easyJet and other partners. Alongside work on improving the met forecasting and climate understanding, NATS and the airlines are trialling alterations to selected aircraft trajectories to avoid the areas where it is predicted that warming contrails will form.
By urgently pursuing this research, we’ll get more confidence that any future action to avoid warming contrails will support the all-important goal of limiting global average surface temperature to 1.5 degrees in line with the Paris Accord.
What are the biggest challenges we still need to overcome?
Aviation has always faced challenges, and it has always risen to them. The sector has a credible and honest path ahead to net zero and I’m optimistic that with continued commitment, acceleration and transparency we will get there. As I said earlier, this is all about scale, agility and pace. We have a good solution-set, we just need to get on and deliver!
Jennifer Desharnais, Senior Director, Environmental Protection & Sustainability, ACI World
What progress has the industry made on sustainability in the last year or so?
Airports continue investing in energy efficiency, waste management, biodiversity protection, and climate adaptation, looking increasingly at nature-based solutions. Decarbonisation efforts are advancing, with over 600 airports accredited under the ACI Airport Carbon Accreditation programme.
Industry collaboration to deploy SAF is increasing, and at the ACI World Annual General Assembly in 2024, members adopted a resolution which recognizes the role of airports in the SAF value chain, and the leadership taken by many airports to stimulate the adoption of SAF.
At the broader industry level, the third ICAO Conference on Aviation and Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) in November 2023, marked significant progress with a global vision for SAF and a cleaner energy framework adopted by over 100 States. ACI World advocated for, and fully endorsed, the outcome of this historical meeting.
Are we doing enough as an industry?
While progress is evident, achieving net-zero and protecting resources demands greater collaboration, funding, and commitment to transformative solutions. ACI World is constantly at the forefront of international industry working groups, to ensure its members’ voices are heard.
It contributes to and releases publications, good practices, and tools so that airports can meet their sustainability objectives. A good example is the Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) Framework that ACI World is developing, aimed at providing reporting guidance to the airport industry to navigate the complexity of ESG and sustainability reporting.
What is giving you cause for optimism?
The growing number of pilots, projects, and partnerships in renewable energy demonstrates rising momentum. While not all projects will scale up, they lay critical groundwork.
Several of ACI World’s partnerships, such as the Airports of Tomorrow led with the World Economic Forum, or the recent Memorandum of Cooperation with Airbus, are ways for ACI World and its membership to be change agents in the sustainability sphere. Partnering with global experts to develop environmental standards and guidance, also inspires confidence in aviation’s sustainable future.
The growing number of pilots, projects, and partnerships in renewable energy demonstrates rising momentum. While not all projects will scale up, they lay critical groundwork.
What are the biggest challenges we still need to overcome?
Key challenges include ensuring sufficient green energy for electrification and the infrastructure to distribute it. Airports must secure renewable energy for their operations and enable electrification of activities, including future aircraft technologies.
Consistent global regulations are vital for adopting hydrogen and battery-powered aircraft. ACI World together with the industry, has been leading the way to prepare for regulatory, operational, and technical shifts to accommodate these new technologies.
Addressing community concerns, such as aircraft noise impacts, remains an ongoing priority, and ACI World released a Guidance on the Application of the ICAO Balanced Approach to Aircraft Noise Management, for a better understanding of how its application can lead to more successful noise management strategies.
Tim Johnson, Aviation Environment Federation
What progress has the industry made on sustainability in the last year or so?
Getting an element of certainty, via the mandate, on the role that SAF will play in decarbonisation of the UK sector, has provided clarity especially out to 2030. But I would also highlight the attention given to carbon removal options to address the industry’s residual emissions out to 2050, and the increasing focus on tackling non-CO2.
Are we doing enough as an industry?
The narrow focus on SAF is absorbing most of the industry’s energy and capacity. Other solutions and tools, such as advances towards zero emission technologies, are being developed in parallel but they don’t have the same level of support.
More balance is required, including on challenging issues for the industry such as effective carbon pricing. From a community perspective, noise feels like a neglected area since the pandemic, which could be storing up problems with airspace modernisation looming.
The narrow focus on SAF is absorbing most of the industry’s energy and capacity.
What is giving you cause for optimism?
The conversation around the possibilities for contrail avoidance has brought many different stakeholders together, from NGOs and academics to airlines and ANSPs. The start of pilot studies and an apparent, shared willingness to see these expanded to larger scale trials provide the basic ingredients for meaningful action over the next couple of years.
CICONIA is a multidisciplinary project examining the impact and mitigation of contrails.
What are the biggest challenges we still need to overcome?
The absence of interim global climate targets out to 2050 is likely to hamper or delay coordinated international efforts. While the UK has both government and Climate Change Committee trajectories to guide progress, there is no formal trajectory to benchmark progress towards ICAO’s net zero aspirational goal.
As a result, there could be a lack of international political togetherness in the crucial 2030s period when many technologies need to scale significantly. ICAO’s Assembly later this year is an opportunity to address this concern.
Dr Alejandro Block, Manager, New Energies and Technologies IATA
What progress has the industry made on sustainability in the last year or so?
There are three things we must do to reach net zero CO2 emissions by 2050: Reduce the energy we use in flight, change the fuel we use (the carbon is in the fuel; we must remove it!), and re-capture residual CO2 emissions. Here, I will focus on the progress on the second lever, as removing CO2 at the source is our first climate priority.
In 2024, the SAF uptake from airlines doubled from 0.5 million tonnes in 2023 to 1 million tonnes. While this only represented 0.3% of the global fuel used, it is a remarkable achievement considering that SAF uptake in 2020 was twenty times lower! This number is expected to double again in 2025.
The sector is also pushing strong on zero-carbon alternatives like hydrogen and battery-powered aircraft. IATA identified over 44 airports and 35 airlines which have committed to a hydrogen future for aviation, these numbers are three times higher than what they were in 2021!
Furthermore, we know of 44 individual aircraft concepts from 23 companies which are developing hydrogen and electric aircraft. UK and US-based ZeroAvia, for example, secured financing for USD 150 million this year to continue their flight test and technology development campaign. H2Fly and Jobi flew the first-ever liquid hydrogen tank on an eVTOL aircraft, and Stralis Aircraft demonstrated their first hydrogen-powered propeller spin at a major airport in Brisbane.
ZeroAvia secured $150 million for research and development.
Are we doing enough as an industry?
However, this is not enough. The ICAO CAAF/3 global vision will require not 1 or 2 million tonnes of SAF but over 14 million tonnes to reach the goal of reducing CO2 in 5% by 2030. Hydrogen aircraft cannot wait to enter service until 2035, as every day these aircraft get delayed will represent emissions unabated in 2050. We have also seen oil majors walking away from renewable fuel projects, quoting “temporary delays”.
Let’s be clear: We are on emergency mode, and time is our enemy. Delaying SAF projects, not investing in new technologies, and having certification roadblocks will all result in extra CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere. More must be done…quickly!
Let’s be clear: We are on emergency mode, and time is our enemy. Delaying SAF projects, not investing in new technologies, and having certification roadblocks will all result in extra CO2 emissions released into the atmosphere. More must be done…quickly!
What is giving you cause for optimism?
This is a call to arms, but not a reason to lose optimism. Never in aviation’s history have there been so many different innovations, so much investment and so many intelligent people committing to the cause.
Initiatives are popping out almost monthly everywhere in the world, and industry leaders are talking to each other and collaborating like never before. We are also thinking beyond CO2 and into our non-CO2 effects. IATA’s study on tackling non-CO2 uncertainties, for example, was jointly published with 15 other organisations and involved nearly 50 experts world-wide.
Never in aviation’s history have there been so many different innovations, so much investment and so many intelligent people committing to the cause.
Our wish list for 2025? A ramp-up in SAF investment including co-processing, more funding going into hydrogen and electric aircraft start-ups and legacy manufacturers (let’s not forget the amazing work that Airbus, Embraer, SAFRAN, GKN, Rolls Royce, Pratt & Whitney and others are doing!), more research gone into non-CO2 with demonstrable contrail avoidance trials, and a ramp-up of investment into permanent carbon capture and storage solutions.
See you in January 2026!
Haldane Dodd, ATAG
The big shift in aviation sustainability has been the remarkable rise in sustainable aviation fuel forward purchase and production. Since 2022, annual production has gone from 200,000 tonnes to 500,000 tonnes to a million tonnes this year, with another doubling expected in the 2025 year.
This is encouraging progress and will help along the path to around 20 million tonnes being available every year from 2030 – the amount needed to meet the growing number of regulated blend mandates around the world. The big question is how we accelerate the scale-up even further to meet the post-2030 world and ensure the opportunities of SAF production are available in countries all over the world, developed and emerging markets alike.
A key challenge is how to accelerate the production and provision of SAF globally.
Not a week goes by when we don’t have another announcement of SAF offtake by airlines, or a new production facility being announced. Not all of these will come to fruition, but it’s fair to say that there is a lot of activity in this space.
More needs to be done, of course. This is a once-in-a-generation energy transition and the starting phase will always be a messy one. My optimism comes from the commitment we are seeing not just from aviation, but also others in the energy, finance and agriculture space to make this a reality. Big challenges require big collaborations and we are definitely seeing that for SAF.
This is a once-in-a-generation energy transition and the starting phase will always be a messy one.
There are many challenges remaining in the aviation decarbonisation journey. I am confident we have a lot of the right building blocks in place and our industry is very adept at taking on big challenges and succeeding. So there is cause for optimism, but the one thing we are not blessed with is time. Our sector may have very specific demands as we tackle the climate crisis, but we share the urgency and vital nature of the endeavour with all other parts of the economy.