Performance Through Predictability
With decades of experience within the flight operational environment, Ekkehard is now the Manager of Flight Dispatch Support & Air Traffic Management (ATM) at EAT, a wholly owned subsidiary of the DHL Group and part of the DHL Express division.
Listen to this article
Automated, predictive, and intelligent
The aviation industry is shifting from manual, reactive processes to automated, predictive, and intelligent data-driven operations. Creating more predictability counteracts uncertainty and drives on-time performance, a key metric in aviation whether you carry passengers or cargo.
As the German DHL cargo airline, EAT operates one of the largest cargo fleets in Europe with 36 aircraft, operating around 28,000 flights annually, serving more than 50 destinations across Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. They are part of the country’s critical infrastructure and, similar to passenger airlines, face pressures on predictability and performance.
Ekkehard’s role at EAT involves Air Traffic Control coordination, managing ATM issues, flight dispatch support, aeronautical data, and driving sustainability in flight operations. We caught up with Ekkehard to understand the importance of predictability in the flight operations environment when every minute matters.
Overcoming uncertainty with predictability
A key challenge in the ATM environment is uncertainty, Ekkehard states: “Uncertainties encompass a wide range of challenges, including severe weather – which remains a top, uncontrollable threat – as well as unprecedented global events, conflict zones, ATC, maintenance, short staffing, and logistical delays.”
These factors may lead to operational disruptions, delays, inefficiencies, and financial losses. Reduced operational efficiency may also result in system-wide disruption, such as unnecessary fuel consumption and a reduced, often under-declared, sector capacity.
Ekkehard’s wealth of experience in flight dispatch, planning and ATM across multiple organisations lends key insights into the role of predictability in ATC. He explains, “Predictability through performance in ATC and flight operations represents a strategic shift from reactive management to proactive, data-driven, and highly coordinated operations. High-level, real-time data sharing between all stakeholders enables better forecasting of demand-capacity imbalances.”
Predictability through performance in ATC and flight operations represents a strategic shift from reactive management to proactive, data-driven, and highly coordinated operations. High-level, real-time data sharing between all stakeholders enables better forecasting of demand-capacity imbalances.
The accuracy of air traffic predictability is essential for maximising airspace capacity: “When flights adhere to planned schedules and routes, it reduces controller workload and prevents ‘over-delivery’ or congestion in flight sectors. A lack of predictability forces airlines to load additional ‘contingency’ fuel, which adds weight and increases fuel burn.”
Ekkehard is convinced that the concept of A-CDM – where the efficiency and resilience of an airport is greatly improved – should be utilised in ATM environments as well: “Studies show that wider A-CDM deployment across Europe could reduce total network ATFM delays by 18-23% and improve sector capacity by up to 4%.” [1]
Studies show that wider A-CDM deployment across Europe could reduce total network ATFM delays by 18-23% and improve sector capacity by up to 4%.
Eurocontrol’s A-CDM Impact Assessment found that airports that have implemented A-CDM experience: up to 10% reduction in ATFM delays; an 85% increase in predictability of take-off times; optimised use of airport resources (stands, gates, taxiways), reducing fuel consumption and CO2 emissions; and enhanced slot adherence and resilience during irregular operations. [2]
Technology-driven transformation
Aviation globally is undergoing a shift towards automated, predictive operations: the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI), machine learning, and connectivity to enhance safety, sustainability, and efficiency. The use of AI-driven decision support tools is helping ATM to manage increasingly complex and congested airspace, allowing it to adapt to traffic demand more effectively.
Technological shifts are transforming aviation roles – especially for pilots, maintenance/engineering, and dispatchers – from manual operators into systems managers. Integrated digital displays and AI tools provide better situational awareness, flagging hazards and technical anomalies early, which aids faster, more accurate decision making. The shift toward digital towers and remote tower solutions is setting a new industry standard, enhancing situational awareness and operational flexibility.
Digital tower solutions are setting new industry standards
Modern ATM improvements are heavily focused on increasing predictability to enhance operational efficiency, safety, and capacity, particularly through the implementation of Trajectory Based Operations (TBO) and an enhanced digital infrastructure. "By shifting from tactical, reactive management to strategic, data-driven planning, the industry aims to reduce delays, lower fuel burn, and to deal with increased air traffic demand."
By shifting from tactical, reactive management to strategic, data-driven planning, the industry aims to reduce delays, lower fuel burn, and to deal with increased air traffic demand.
While this shift is fundamental to progression in aviation, cybersecurity must remain a priority. “As systems become more interconnected,” explains Ekkehard, “monitoring for cyber threats (such as GPS spoofing and jamming, especially near conflict zones) has become a crucial part of flight operations.”
Looking to the future
Ekkehard speaks to a 4C philosophy when dealing with ATC/ATM: Communication, Collaboration, Critical thinking, and Creativity. "Airlines and ATC must continue working in an atmosphere where each side understands the other side’s situation, supported by a continuous dialogue."
Airlines and ATC must continue working in an atmosphere where each side understands the other side’s situation, supported by a continuous dialogue.
Operational trials are essential for validating new technologies and procedures with the ATC/ATM environment prior to full-scale deployment. By prioritising predictability and digitalisation, EAT are shifting air traffic management from a reactive model to a pro-active strategic system.
Advancing technologies and shifting attitudes in aviation continue to shape the impact of predictability in ATM. While there may be challenges and uncertainties beyond the control of ATC/ATM, there are exciting opportunities to continue improving operational predictability and performance.
Aviation sustainability depends on a unified, proactive partnership where ANSPs and ATC work in close and continuous cooperation with the airlines. While airlines invest in efficient fleets and Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAF), ATM holds the key to the next level of decarbonisation by optimising trajectories, eliminating airborne holding, and minimising fuel burn through advanced airspace coordination and increased predictability.